Analysis of the drought vulnerability characteristics in Northeast China based on the theory of information distribution and diffusion

Abstract

The drought vulnerability characteristics from 1971 to 2012 in Northeast China are analysed and the risk in Northeast China is calculated based on the theory of information distribution and diffusion, combining with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the drought damage index (DDI) in Northeast China, with considering the meteorological factors and social factors. The probability density function (PDF) of DSI is estimated by using the method of information distribution. The vulnerability of the relationship between DSI and DDI is constructed by using the method of two-dimensional normal information diffusion. Then the average risk can be obtained by calculating the sum (discrete distribution) or integral (continuous distribution) of the product of the PDF of DSI and the vulnerability curve. The results show that the introduction of information distribution and diffusion method to analyze the problem of vulnerability for the situation of small sample could render the PDF of DSI smoother. What is more, the vulnerability of the relationship between DSI and DDI through the DSI to obtain the DDI has clearer physical meaning. Therefore the results could be realistic. More significantly, similar results can be obtained with different simple lengths, which means that the method is insensitive to the simple length and it can well overcome the instability of analysis of the small sample.