Author:
Hong Mei ,Zhang Ren ,Liu Ke-Feng ,
Abstract
On the basis of the potential field data on 500 hPa from 2000-2010 from NCEP/NCAR, introducing the ideas of EOF(empirical orthogonal function) time-space separation and the dynamic system reconstruction of time series, with the advantages of the global optimization and parallel calculation by genetic assistance, dynamic model inversion is carried out, thus a nonlinear forecast model of the subtropical high activity and aberrance is established. And a mid/long-range forecast of subtropical high activity was carried out. The results of dynamic model forecast experiment showed that the mid/long-range forecast of subtropical high pressure by our model can be very actual. Especially, the aberrance of the subtropical high pressure can be drawn and forecast. A new method of idea is presented for diagnosing and forecasting such complicated weathers as subtropical high activity.
Publisher
Acta Physica Sinica, Chinese Physical Society and Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Subject
General Physics and Astronomy
Reference22 articles.
1. Lau K M, Li M T 1984 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 65 114
2. Zhu Q G, He J H, Wang P X 1986 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 3 466
3. Huang R H, Wu Y F 1989 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 6 21
4. Wu G X, Chou J F, Liu Y M 2003 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 27 503 (in Chinese) [吴国雄, 丑纪范, 刘屹岷 2003 大气科学 27 503]
5. Zhao Z G 1999 Summertime Floods and Drought s in China and t he Associated Circulations (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p45 (in Chinese) [赵振国 1999 中国夏季旱涝及环境场(北京: 气象出版社) 第45页]
Cited by
2 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献