Application of Optimal Combinatory Mathematics Model in Heat Load Trend Prediction

Abstract

The accurate prediction of the short-term heat load trend of buildings helps to prevent energy waste. Combinatory prediction methods need to be studied, as the processing of real-time data series of heat supply and the accurate prediction of short-term trend are more and more demanded by different heating districts and independent buildings. Therefore, this study explores the application of optimal combinatory mathematics model in heat load trend prediction. Firstly, feature extraction was performed on the historical weather data at the locality of the building and the historical data on heat load, creating a short-term trend prediction dataset with days as the unit, and an ultra-short-term trend prediction dataset with hours as the unit. On this basis, a combinatory mathematics model was created for heat load trend prediction. Furthermore, the authors detailed the principles of the two methods, namely, extreme gradient boosting tree (EGBT) and support vector regression (SVR), and explains the combination pattern of the single models in the combinatory model. Then, the weights were optimized by the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, and the steps of the combinatory model were presented. The proposed model was proved effective through experiments.