Will Russia Have Economic Growth in the Mid-XXI Century?

Abstract

Discussions on Russia´s modernization paths specify that conservation of existing institutions along with the raw materials export-based model of development cannot sustain high economic growth rates. The article spells out this statement by expanding the analysis horizon to 2050. The model runs demonstrate that modernization failure in the 2010s may stipulate the loss by Russia´s economy of the ability to expand or even transition to the shagreen-leather-like economy (a model of constantly declining GDP accompanied by reduced oil production) in the 2030s or 2040s. The analysis shows that without effective modernization aimed at enhancing productivity of all production factors there will be no economic growth in Russia in the middle of the XXI century.