Affiliation:
1. St. Petersburg State University; Fund “Center for Strategic Research”
2. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Abstract
We investigate mechanisms of budget expenditures structure influence on economic development. General government fiscal multiplier in various functional directions is estimated. We show that productive expenses in general have bigger multiplicative effect on GDP, than unproductive ones. By means of multiplicative effects models estimation for various functional items we calculate potential effect on economic growth of the budget maneuver in favor of productive expenses and the implemented effect of the recent years budget expenditures structure change. We show that resources redistribution from non-productive expenses to productive ones could increase long-term rates of economic growth approximately by 0,8 p. p. per year. On the contrary, the budget expenditures structure change observed during 2011-2017 has a negative impact on average annual rates of economic growth about 0,3 p. p. per year.
Subject
Economics and Econometrics,Finance
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