On a Method of Statistical Business-Cycle Research. A Reply (With comment by J. M. Keynes)

Abstract

In his polemic reply Tinbergen defends the econometric method he applied. He reproaches Keynes for the inaccuracy of his argument and justifies the applicability of linear relationships in economic analysis and their existence in economic interactions. Tinbergen also provides a detailed account of some methodological (primarily addressing the problem of causality) and economic issues of his analysis. In a comment to the Tinbergen’s paper Keynes clarifies his point of view on some particular points as well as on econometrics as a whole.