Economic Growth and Economic crises in Russia: The End of the 1920s - 2014

Abstract

Using previously unknown long-run statistical time-series on industry, agri-culture, railroad transportation and residential construction, we have denoted periods of growth and contraction in the Russian economy and revealed the economic factors of all changes in the trajectory. Periods of contractions during the era of the planned economy have been of special interest for us. Even now, many think that economic recessions generated for economic reasons are impossible in the planned economy. We have checked this idea against the long-run statistical data for Russia and found that cycling does occur, not only in market, but in planned economies as well (of course, with a significant remark that crises in planned economies are much rarer but possibly more destructive). The drops in total economic activity were caused partly by internal economic reasons (1945-1946, 1979, 1989-1991, 1992-1996), partly by external shocks (1941-1942, 1998, 2008-2009) and partly by the decisions and actions of national authorities (1933). The latter factor was very important for the Russian economic trajectory during the whole 20th century.