Testing for structural break in aggregated consumption function of Russian households-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Testing for structural break in aggregated consumption function of Russian households

Published:2021-05-14 Issue:5 Volume: Page:91-106
ISSN:0042-8736
Container-title:Voprosy Ekonomiki
language:
Short-container-title:Vopr. èkon.

Author:

Polbin A. V.¹^ORCID,Skrobotov A. A.²^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

2. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Moscow, Russia); Saint Petersburg State University (St. Petersburg)

Abstract

The paper considers a simple aggregated consumption function for Russian economy in which households consume a constant fraction of a permanent income. The value of this fraction is estimated by households within the framework of the adaptive expectations process based on the dynamics of GDP at constant consumption prices. Testing for a structural break at an unknown date in the parameter of the propensity to consume is performed. The results of econometric estimation, taking into account the presence of an endogeneity in the regression equation, demonstrate that after 2014 there was a structural break, as a result of which the parameter of the propensity to consume of permanent GDP decreased by 6.5—9.2%.

Publisher

NP Voprosy Ekonomiki

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Finance

Reference38 articles.

1. Aivazian S. A., Brodsky B. E. (2018). Retrospective analysis of structural changes in SEM (simultaneous equation) models with varying structure. Part 1. Economics and Mathematical Methods, Vol. 54, No. 2, pp. 62—70. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.7868/S042473881802005X

2. Drobyshevsky S. M., Idrisov G. I., Kaukin A. S., Pavlov P. N., Sinelnikov-Murylev S. G. (2018). Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates in 2007—2017 and forecast for 2018—2020. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 9, pp. 5—31. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-9-5-31

3. Ershov M. V., Tanasova A. S. (2019). The world and Russia: Inflation is minimal, economic growth is slowing, risks are rising. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 12, pp. 5—23. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2019-12-5-23

4. Zubarev A. V., Nesterova K. V. (2019). Assessing the consequences of the pension reform in Russia in a global CGEOLG model. HSE Economic Journal, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 384—417. (In Russian).

5. Mau V. A. (2020). Economics and politics in 2019—2020: Global challenges and national answers. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 3, pp. 5—27. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-3-5-27

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Estimates of households consumer behavior in Russia;Voprosy Ekonomiki;2022-03-10