Affiliation:
1. Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting;
Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS;
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Abstract
The paper analyzes the influence of the dynamics of retail financial markets on the development of financial sector on the annual data for 39 countries, including developed and developing economies, for the period 1990—2018. To assess the general dynamics of retail markets development, a composite indicator was built. This indicator is included in the models for corporate lending market, stock market and non-life insurance market. The results show that, on the one hand, the development of retail markets (households credit market, life insurance market and private pension funds) stimulates the development of non-retail financial markets (corporate lending market, stock market and non-life insurance market) due to the expansion of their resources. On the other hand, overheating of retail credit market has a negative impact on the stability of the banking sector and subsequently leads to a reduction in the size of the corporate credit market, and the excessively rapid growth of life insurance market may hinder the development of its other segments.
Subject
Economics and Econometrics,Finance
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