Estimating social discount rate for government investment projects in Russia

Author:

Kossova T. V.1ORCID,Sheluntcova M.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. HSE University

Abstract

The article explores methods of estimating discount rate for investment projects financed with budgetary funds and aimed at creating social benefits. Social benefits often do not have a direct monetary value, so the methods for determining the discount rate for such projects differ from market ones. Spending budget funds on investment projects means that society gives up consumption at the current moment in time for the sake of future return on investment. The discount rate should reflect public preferences regarding the distribution of consumption between the current and future periods. The method for estimating these preferences is called the social rate of time preferences. Another approach to determine the discount rate allows one to consider the alternative possibility of implementing a project in the private sector (social opportunity cost of capital). The article describes the development of methods for evaluating the social discount rate and discusses the possibilities of their application for Russia. The value of the social rate of time preferences, equal to 2.5%, and the value of the social opportunity cost of capital, equal to 4.4—5%, are substantiated for short-and medium-term public investment projects in Russia. Rates are given in real terms.

Publisher

NP Voprosy Ekonomiki

Reference30 articles.

1. Kossova T. V., Sheluntcova M. A. (2012). A social discount rate for Russia: Methodology, appraisal, regional differences. Economics of Contemporary Russia, No. 3, pp. 16—27. (In Russian).

2. Kossova T. V., Sheluntcova M. A. (2014). Evaluation of a social discount rate: Social opportunity cost of capital approach. Economics of Contemporary Russia, No. 1, pp. 37—47. (In Russian).

3. Limonov L. E., Nesena M. V., Semenov A. A. (2019). Evaluating the performance of cultural heritage conservation projects. Region: Economics & Sociology, No. 4, pp. 295—315. (In Russian).

4. Melnikov R. M. (2023). Evaluation of the effectiveness of socially significant investment projects using cost-benefit analysis. Moscow: Prospekt. (In Russian).

5. Pilipenko I. (2011). The use of cost-benefit analysis for evaluating efficiency of public investment projects (The case of Sochi-2014 Winter Olympic Games). Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 11, pp. 57—78. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2011-11-57-78

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