National Oil and Gas Sector: Competitiveness Dynamics and Prospects of Financing

Abstract

Methodological and empirical problems of medium-term forecasting of the Russian economy mono-product branches are considered in the article (as an example the oil-and-gas sector is analyzed). On the basis of the specially-developed technique it is shown that slowing of growth of the oil-and-gas sector in 2005 (despite the reached price peak) renders much stronger negative influence on the economic growth of the whole economy, than it follows from the official data inevitably underestimating the contribution of this sector to the GDP. The forecast of the Russian oil-and-gas sector development up to 2009 (made on the basis of the computing model) allows to estimate its financial deficiencies (proficiencies) from the point of view of self-financing of growing investments which increase is necessary for improving the international competitiveness of this sector (due to specific processes forecasted in the world economy).