Fluctuations in uncertainty

Author:

Bloom N.1

Affiliation:

1. Stanford University (Stanford, CA, USA); National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, MA, USA); Center for Economic Performance, London School of Economics (London, UK); Center for Economic and Policy Research (London, UK)

Abstract

In this essay, the author addresses four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries - developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.

Publisher

NP Voprosy Ekonomiki

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Finance

Reference82 articles.

1. Bloom N. (2014). Fluctuations in uncertainty // Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 28, No. 2, pp. 153-176. Печатается с разрешения автора и Американской экономической ассоциации

2. Abel A. B. (1983). Optimal investment under uncertainty. American Economic Review, Vol. 73, No. 1, pp. 228-233.

3. Abel A. B., Eberly J. C. (1996). Optimal investment with costly reversibility. Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 63, No. 4, pp. 581-593.

4. Alexopoulos M., Cohen J. (2009). Uncertain times, uncertain measures. University of Toronto, Department of Economics Working Paper, No. 352.

5. Arellano C., Bai Y., Kehoe P. (2010). Financial markets and fluctuations in uncertainty. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Research Department Staff Report.

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