Russian Economy against a Background of Global Crisis: Current Trends and Prospects of Development

Abstract

Overall overview of current economic situation in Russia and in the world and possible scenarios of future economic development are presented in the paper. The analysis of GDP slowdown factors shows that the fall in excess inventories, accumulated in 2007—2008, accounts for more than 2/3 of GDP reduction in Russia. It is noted that instruments used by the government are weakening each other and do not allow to achieve internal and external equilibrium simultaneously in the future. Two possible anti-crisis economic policies (which are also behind the differences in two scenarios) are considered — countercyclical and anti inflation ones, their advantages and drawbacks are examined. The conclusion is made that countercyclical policy is now more favorable, which seems also to be a government choice. Nevertheless, anti-inflation policy directed to shrink monopolies power is necessary in both scenarios.