Spatial distribution and temporal trend of drug-related deaths in the Islamic Republic of Iran during 2014–2017

Abstract

Background: Research suggests that there is an increasing trend in drug-related deaths worldwide: an estimated 69 000 individuals lose their lives due to substance abuse annually. Aims: To determine the geographical pathology of drug-related deaths in the Islamic Republic of Iran and to evaluate incidence trends, with a focus on identifying high- and low-risk regions. Methods: For this ecological study, we collected data from the 2 main sources (the Legal Medicine Organization and the Ministry of Health and Medical Education) responsible for registering substance-related deaths during 2014–2017. Data analysis was conducted using Joinpoint regression analysis, Global Moran’s I and Anselin Local Moran’s I. Results: Of the 12 386 drug-related deaths in 2014–2017, most occurred during the summer months; 7162 of these were among middle-aged individuals. The mean age of children and adolescents who died of substance abuse was 5.2 [standard deviation (SD) 4.6] years. In the young adult group, mean age at death was 20.7 (SD 2.5) years; it was 34.2 (SD 5.4) years for adults and 55.6 (SD 9.8) years for older adults. Changes in mortality rate peaked in 2017 (annual percentage change = 0.52); in the last months of the study period there was a nonsignificant decrease (annual percentage change = –6.99) in the incidence (average annual percentage change = –0.5; 95% confidence interval: –3.2, 2.3). Conclusion: Deaths due to substance abuse will remain a huge public health problem unless policy- and decision-makers determine why this problem continues to increase despite the extensive efforts on regulation and find ways to mitigate it.