Prediction of Loop Current and Eddy Regimes in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

AbstractAccurate prediction of the frontal position and intensity of the Loop Current and associated Loop Current Eddies (LC/LCEs) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is notoriously difficult, adversely impacting offshore planning and workability. Here, we review operational forecasting practices and propose a new, unifying, approach for the holistic analysis of oceanographic data, exploring the potential for establishing a new general-purpose set of GoM regimes for the objective classification of its ‘state’ into 1 of 40 discrete regime definitions, as generated through clustering of sea surface height fields obtained from reanalysis data for the period from 1994 to 2015. Drawing inspiration from present methods for the prediction of anticipated LC/LCE impacts, the approach delivers an automatic identification tool to complement operational decision-making, leveraging over 20 years of potential historical analogues to inform impact assessment. Furthermore, it is readily applicable to observational (e.g. satellite) and modelling (e.g. analysis/forecast) fields alike – making expansion to other equivalent spatial datasets simple – and capable of both simplifying the interpretation of dynamical forecasts and seeding the generation of statistical forecasts; opening the potential for a combined, hybrid, approach comprising multiple complementary data sources to be derived in the future. Although still at an early stage of refinement, this is deemed to be a highly important original contribution for operators seeking to improve the efficiency of their planning workflow when forecasting workability in the region.