Time series and trend analysis of brucellosis in Oskou county, EastAzerbaijan: 2007-2016

Author:

Rafiemanesh Hosein1ORCID,Alimohamadi Yousef23,Hashemi Aghdam Seyed Rasoul4,Safarzadeh Avaz5,Shokri Abolghasem6,Zemestani Alireza7ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Student Research Committee, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

2. Noor Research Center for Ophthalmic Epidemiology, Noor Eye Hospital, Tehran, Iran

3. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

4. Oskou Comprehensive and Public Health Network, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran

5. Student Research Committee, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran

6. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

7. Road Traffic Injury Research Center, Health Management and Safety Promotion Research Institute, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran

Abstract

Background: The epidemiology of human brucellosis has drastically changed in recent years. This study aims to assess trend in brucellosis in the Oskou county, East Azerbaijan, Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on all confirmed brucellosis cases over the period between 2007 and 2016 in Oskuo county. We use crude incidence rate (CIR) per100000 persons and carried out Joinpoint regression analysis to describe brucellosis trend over the study period. Also, we used ARIMA model to predict trend and number of new brucellosis cases for the coming years. Results: More than 90% (92.5%; 95% CI: 89.9-95.1) of brucellosis cases were in rural areas over the study period. In recorded cases, 60.5% (95% CI: 55.6-65.4) of total cases were men and 39.5% (95% CI: 34.6-44.4) of total cases were women. The mean age of men was 33.85(SD=19.72) years and the mean age of women was 35.88 (SD=17.26) years old. Majority of brucellosis cases occurred in spring. CIRs for the rural and urban areas were 47.62 to132.20 and zero to 18.55, respectively. The CIR for rural area had decreasing trend to 2011 and increasing for 2011-2017. Conclusion: Based-on time series analysis, the number of new cases in the future years has fixed trend and the most number of incident cases will be occurred between third to fifth months in each years.

Publisher

Maad Rayan Publishing Company

Subject

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Education,Health(social science)

Cited by 4 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3