Temporal and Spatial Trends From Counterfactual Scenarios of Physical Activity on Mortality, Years of Life Lost, and Life Expectancy Due to Noncommunicable Diseases in Argentina

Abstract

Background: This study estimates the spatial distribution and trends in preventable deaths, years of life lost (YLL), and life expectancy (LE), associated with noncommunicable diseases under alternative distributions of physical activity in Argentina. Methods: Potential impact fractions were used to calculate the preventable deaths and YLL attributable to various scenarios of physical activity. Cause-eliminated life tables were used to estimate LE gains, and Monte Carlo simulations were performed for uncertainty analysis. Results: From 2005 to 2018, physical activity could have prevented up to 7544 to 8220 potential deaths (≈4.27% of major noncommunicable diseases and ≈2.66% of all causes) and about 221 to 219 YLL per 100,000 inhabitants; between 0.67 and 0.71 years of LE could have been gained. If the World Health Organization recommendations (at least 600 metabolic equivalent tasks minutes per week) had been achieved, between 2813 and 3111 potential deaths could have been prevented, about 80 fewer years of life (per 100,000 inhabitants) would have been lost, and 0.23 years of LE could have been gained. A 15% reduction in insufficient physical activity has shown a small impact on outcomes. Conclusion: Public health initiatives aimed at increasing population-wide physical activity could reduce noncommunicable disease deaths in Argentina.