Predicting Future Athletic Performance in Young Female Road Cyclists Based on Aerobic Fitness and Hematological Variables

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to determine whether the initial levels of aerobic fitness and hematological variables in young female road cyclists are related to their athletic performance development during their careers. Methods: Results of graded exercise tests on a cycle ergometer and total hemoglobin mass (tHb-mass) measurements were analyzed in 34 female road cyclists (age 18.6 [1.9] y). Among them, 2 groups were distinguished based on their competitive performance (Union Cycliste Internationale world ranking) over the following 8 years. Areas under the curve in receiver-operating-characteristic curves were calculated as indicators of elite-performance prediction. Results: Initial graded exercise test variables (peak power, peak oxygen uptake, and power at 4 mmol/L blood lactate) were not significantly different in elite (n = 13) versus nonelite (n = 21) riders. In contrast, elite riders had higher tHb-mass expressed either in absolute measures (664 [75] vs 596 [59] g, P = .006) or normalized to body mass (11.2 [0.8] vs 10.3 [0.7] g/kg, P = .001) and fat-free mass (14.4 [0.9] vs 13.1 [0.9] g/kg, P < .001). Absolute and relative erythrocyte volumes were significantly higher in elite subjects (P ranged from < .001 to .006). Of all the variables analyzed, the relative tHb-mass had the highest predictive ability to reach the elite level (area under the curve ranged from .82 to .85). Conclusion: Measurement of tHb-mass can be a helpful tool in talent detection to identify young female road cyclists with the potential to reach the elite level in the future.