Defining Worst-Case-Scenario Thresholds in Soccer: Intensity Versus Volume

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to enhance the understanding of soccer match peak demands by describing worst-case scenario (WCS) and time spent above 80% and 90% of the WCS for total distance (TD) and high-speed running (HSR). The investigation considered playing level (first team vs under-19 [U19] team) and playing position (center backs, fullbacks, midfielders, and forwards) to assess how WCS and the time spent above specific thresholds vary across different populations. Methods: Data from 31 players in a professional Italian soccer club were collected during the 2022–23 season. Microtechnology devices tracked physical activity during matches. Players were categorized by position, and WCS was determined using rolling averages over a 1-minute period. Time spent above 80% and 90% of WCS for TD and HSR was calculated. Results: The U19 team exhibited higher HSR WCS compared with the first team (∼63 m·min−1 vs ∼56 m·min−1). Midfielders recorded the highest TD WCS (∼208 m·min−1), and forwards exhibited the highest HSR WCS (∼70 m·min−1). The first team spent significantly more time above 80% (∼6 min) and 90% (∼1 min) of TD WCS. Midfielders spent significantly more time above the 80% (∼7 min) of TD WCS, while forwards above the 80% (∼2 min) of HSR WCS. Conclusions: The study emphasizes that WCS used alone may not sufficiently capture real match intensity. Considering the time spent above specific thresholds provides additional insights (ie, between-levels differences and position). Practitioners should consider both WCS and time spent above thresholds for individualized training prescriptions, reflecting differences in playing roles.