The Home Advantage in the National Basketball Association Conference Finals and Finals Series From 1979 to 2019: A Mediation Analysis of Offensive and Defensive Skills

Abstract

This study examined the home advantage effect in decisive National Basketball Association Conference Finals and Finals series playoff games from 1979 to 2019 (the 3-point shot era). We also examined the potential contribution of various offensive- and defensive-based skills and whether these skills mediated the relationship between game status (decisive vs. nondecisive) and outcome (win vs. loss). Overall, we found evidence of a home court advantage with the home team winning 63% of the decisive playoff games and 66% of the nondecisive playoff games. After adjusting for multiple comparisons and regular season win percentage, the home team had significantly more defensive rebounds and steals in Game 5 when trailing 3–1 going into that game. Mediation analyses did not reveal any significant findings when examining the impact of decisive game status on performance through offensive and defensive skills, thus suggesting there are other explanations for the home advantage effect.