EVALUATION OF TWO-LANE ROAD SECTIONS IN TERMS OF TRAFFIC RISK USING AN INTEGRATED MCDM MODEL

Abstract

The impact of geometric characteristics on traffic risk is reflected through identifying conflict points on roads,traffic accidents, and any other unforeseen situation that is inherently hazardous for traffic participants. In order to identify the road sections with the highest risk, it is necessary to consider a number of criteria that affect risk, and conduct extensive empirical research, analysis and data synthesis. This paper evaluates 9 sections of two-lane roads in the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina (the Republic of Srpska) using an integrated Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model.To determine the significance of 8 criteria for the evaluation of the sections, it was applied a subjective–objective model consisting of 3 methods: (1) CRiteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC), (2) FUll COnsistency Method (FUCOM) and (3) fuzzy PIvot Pairwise RElative Criteria Importance Assessment (PIPRECIA). The aggregation of the criterion values obtained using the methods yielded the final criterion values. Measurement Alternatives and Ranking according to COmpromise Solution (MARCOS) method was used to evaluate the sections and determine their objective diversity. The obtained results identified one location as extremely hazardous by most of analysed input parameters. The section with the highest risk is the Rudanka – Doboj section (A4), which represents a section of the road infrastructure of the 105 road. The validation of the results obtained by applying the integrated MCDM model was performed through an extensive sensitivity analysis. The weights of criteria were observed through initially individual methods implemented in the MARCOS method. Then, a comparative analysis was performed with 6 other MCDM methods and Spearman’s Correlation Coefficient (SCC) was calculated as a statistical indicator of rank correlation in a sensitivity analysis. In addition,the Standard Deviation (STDEV) of the obtained results was determined.