INTEGRAL MODEL OF COVID-19 SPREAD AND MITIGATION IN UK: IDENTIFICATION OF TRANSMISSION RATE-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

INTEGRAL MODEL OF COVID-19 SPREAD AND MITIGATION IN UK: IDENTIFICATION OF TRANSMISSION RATE

Published:2022-11-10 Issue:4 Volume:27 Page:573-589
ISSN:1392-6292
Container-title:Mathematical Modelling and Analysis
language:
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Author:

Hritonenko Natali¹,Satsky Caroline²,Yatsenko Yuri³^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Mathematics, Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, 77446 Texas, USA

2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, 79401 Texas, USA

3. Dunham College of Business, Houston Baptist University, Houston, 77074 Texas, USA

Abstract

The integral model with finite memory is employed to analyze the timeline of COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom and government actions to mitigate it. The model uses a realistic infection distribution. The time-varying transmission rate is determined from Volterra integral equation of the first kind. The authors construct and justify an efficient regularization algorithm for finding the transmission rate. The model and algorithm are approbated on the UK data with several waves of COVID-19 and demonstrate a remarkable resemblance between real and simulated dynamics. The timing of government preventive measures and their impact on the epidemic dynamics are discussed.

Publisher

Vilnius Gediminas Technical University

Subject

Modeling and Simulation,Analysis

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