RESEARCH OF THE IMPACT OF BUSINESS CYCLES ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of business cycles on unemployment rates in EU countries. The relationship between changes in gross domestic product and changes in the unemployment rate is referred to in the academic literature as Okun’s law. This law is of particular importance and the relationship has been extensively investigated in the scientific literature, but there are not many studies that analyse the European Union countries. This paper examines the relationship between the unemployment rate and real GDP in the EU-27. The data used for the study cover the period 2007–2019. The results of a correlation regression analysis provide evidence of the inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and real GDP as established by theory. The results also show that the relationship between business cycles and unemployment varies from country to country: in Lithuania and the UK, there is a very strong inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and real GDP. In Lithuania, the coefficient was –0.9377, and a similar coefficient was found in the United Kingdom (–0.9337).