MODELLING CONCEPTUAL BASIS OF REGIONAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS DEVELOPMENT BY SYSTEM ANALYSIS METHODS

Abstract

The article is devoted to the question of regional digitalization and telecommunication development of Ukraine. The conceptual basis of telecommunication development (TCD) assessment by system analysis methods is provided. The status classification model of the region according to the TCD level was investigated.The forecasting models of the TCD level of the region are developed by Markov chain with discrete status. The regional features have been studied. The homogeneous groups of TCD regions have been formed. Visual analysis of the obtained clustering trees by hierarchical methods allowed to conclude about a stable and high-quality division into three clusters. There are clusters of the high, medium and low level of telecommunication. The dynamics of regional clusters moving is estimated. There is set of regions that have never changed their position all the time. Thus, Volyn region was included in the cluster of regions with the medium TCD level. Kharkiv region was included in the high level TCD cluster. The most regions were characterized by a change in level. We get the opportunity at the next stage of the study to estimate the frequency of transitions of regional systems from state to state and to determine the matrices of transition probabilities for each year separately. The forecast of TCD level has been made by stochastic modeling methods, the probabilities of regions falling into different states in 2021 have been estimated. The status of systems with low TCD are likely to be in the high-level group of regions with a probability of slightly more than 2 %. for two years. The probability that the system with medium level of development for two years will remain in the same group is 61,7%. The probability that the status will worsen is 13,8 %, and that will improve – 24,5 %. The probability that the region is stayed in the same group the next two years is 69.5 %. The probability that the high level TCD region is moved to the medium level cluster of regions is 27,6 %, and probability to the low level TCD is 2,9 %.