Macroeconomic Determinants of Inclusive Growth in Pakistan: An ARDL Approach

Abstract

There is increasing concern that growth in most part of the world in not distributed equitably. This is particularly the situation in Pakistan, where the economic growth is uneven and biased toward the affluent. This study aims to present empirical analysis to characterize the association between inclusive growth and its macro-economic determinants in Pakistan. In this context, the study employs annual time-series data for 23 years (1994-2017). In order to obtain long-run and short-term results, both auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM) was being implemented. The findings of the study reveal that infrastructure development and government consumption have a positive and significant impact on the long-term inclusive growth of Pakistan. In contrast, a negative relationship is being observed between inflation, health expenditure and inclusive growth. Based on the findings, the study suggests that policymakers should develop appropriate policies to promote healthy government expenditure, infrastructure development, control inflation, and bring transparency in the health sector for fostering inclusive growth in Pakistan.