Dispelling the $$\sqrt{\mathcal {L}} $$ myth for the High-Luminosity LHC

Abstract

AbstractExtrapolations of sensitivity to new interactions and standard model parameters critically inform the programme at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and potential future collider cases. To this end, statistical considerations based on inclusive quantities and established analysis strategies typically give rise to a sensitivity scaling with the square root of the luminosity, $$\sqrt{\mathcal {L}}$$ L . This suggests only a mild sensitivity improvement for LHC’s high-luminosity phase, compared to the collected data up to the year 2025. We discuss representative analyses in top quark, Higgs boson and electroweak gauge boson phenomenology and provide clear evidence that the assumption that the sensitivity in searches and measurement scales only with $$\sqrt{\mathcal {L}}$$ L at the High-Luminosity LHC is overly conservative at best, and unrealistic in practice. As kinematic coverage enables more targeted search strategies with sufficient statistical sensitivity, employing a multitude of features in data dispels the scaling based on more inclusive selections.