MODERN TRENDS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY BASED ON ECONOMIC CYCLES THEORY

Abstract

The article overviews the problems related with the cyclicality in certain sectors of the economy - shipbuilding and shipping. The modern trends of development of the world shipbuilding market have been analyzed. The article presents a typology of the world countries by shipbuilding market segments. The authors give a description of the shipbuilding markets in the USA, Europe and South-East Asia. Based on the data on the dynamics of the Baltic Dry Index and the dynamics of the world tonnage on order, it was concluded that the world shipbuilding industry depends on shipping activity and there is cyclical nature of their development. The authors propose a schematic illustration of the economic cycle of the shipbuilding market depending on the volumes of maritime trade. The cycle of the shipbuilding market consists of successive steps. The change of steps depends on the balance of supply and demand for shipbuilding products. The article considers the Kondratieff waves and their connection with the development of technological modes. The authors made a retrospective analysis of the development of the world shipbuilding industry from 1741 and suggested three economic cycles in shipbuilding. Based on data on the dynamics of world shipbuilding launches, from 1902-2007, the authors suggest five periods of development in organization of shipbuilding production in the XX century. The factors influencing the change of periods have been given. The conclusions drawn by the authors are the basis for assumptions about the development trends of the world shipbuilding industry for the coming years, and also for the medium term. A number of modern technological solutions in the organization of shipbuilding production have been defined.