Age and Ideology: The Emergence of New Political Cleavages in Thailand's 2566 (2023) Election

Abstract

The Move Forward Party's victory in Thailand's 14 May 2566 (2023) election surprised most observers, defying widespread predictions of a Pheu Thai win. Departing from traditional vote-mobilization strategies, the Move Forward's campaign focused largely on social media and broad calls for political reform while eschewing the vote-canvassing networks and economic policy promises that had delivered victory after victory for the Pheu Thai. Does the Move Forward's win indicate changes in Thai voting behaviour? Relying on data from an original survey collected the week before and the week after the election, as well as observations from fieldwork, we identify two political cleavages that were influential in shaping vote choice: age and ideology. Younger voters and those who embrace more liberal values were significantly more likely to support the Move Forward. Nevertheless, we caution that this election may be unique, and that these political cleavages may not necessarily drive voter behaviour in future elections.