A Predictive Model for Academic Performance of Students in MAT101 at Federal University Birnin Kebbi

Abstract

The research addresses the problem of low academic performance of students taking General Mathematics 1 (MAT101) at the Federal University Birnin Kebbi in Nigeria. MAT101 is a foundational course for several science-related disciplines. However, many students fail to understand its concepts, translating to one of the lowest academic performances, leading to high discontinuation of students’ studies in most science and related fields. To this end, the problem is addressed through a predictive model using data science and machine learning techniques to identify students who are academically at risk. It seeks to answer the appropriateness of the selected statistical and data mining approaches, whether or not they are predictor variables, and validating the model developed. The significance of this study lies in its potential to help instructors identify at-risk students and improve overall performance in MAT101. The research uses data collected from academic records and conducts exploratory data analysis to determine the factors influencing students’ performance. Several classifiers such as Decision Tree and Random Forest were analyzed by evaluating their accuracy. In detail, the difference in the accuracy for the Decision Tree algorithm was 52% and for the Random Forest was 67%. Based on achieved indicators, the Random forest algorithm is more effective in this type of predictive modeling. However, the choice of algorithm depends on specific task requirements, considering factors like speed and accuracy.