Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis

Author:

SERİN Şeref Can1,ÜNLÜKAPLAN İlter2

Affiliation:

1. HARRAN ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ, MALİYE BÖLÜMÜ

2. ÇUKUROVA ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ, MALİYE BÖLÜMÜ

Abstract

An essential part of the ongoing normative debate on how to design the cyclical movements of fiscal policy practices argues that counter-cyclical fiscal policies based on the Keynesian view should be preferred to pro-cyclical practices because of their stabilizing effects. In this context, the empirical analysis of the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy is an area that is up to date, first introduced by Gavin and Perotti (1997). The common opinion of empirical studies is that counter-cyclical practices are applied in developed economies; pro-cycle practices are more common in developing and underdeveloped economies. This study examines the cyclical movements of fiscal policy practices in Turkiye from 1990-2020 with the ARDL method. As a result of the study, findings were obtained that Turkiye's fiscal policy practices have a counter-cyclical structure but lose its fiscal space for a maneuver. The robustness tests also support the findings.

Publisher

Eskisehir Osmangazi University Journal of Social Sciences

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