Modeling approaches and tools of the mutual influence of the migration activity of the population and economic development of the territories

Abstract

Introduction of sanctions restrictions, curtailment of international relations that caused significant reduction of volume of foreign trade turnover and the intensity of interaction between the world countries in technological and financial area, is continuing to have a significant impact on the economic development of the Russian Federation. One of the topical tasks within the general issues of improving strategic planning mechanisms is extending the opportunities for application of the existing methods and tools for identifying the degree of interrelationship between the economic development of the territorial entities and dynamics of the migration process including the perspective of the further creation of forecast scenarios for changes in the migration attractiveness of the entities of the Russian Federation. An effective tool for solving this problem is development and implementation of various economic and mathematical models that provide the opportunity for identifying the key factors affecting the migration activity of the population, carrying out scenario forecasting to evaluate the effect of various measures of government regulation on the dynamics of social and economic development of the territories in the medium- and long-term perspectives. The study in hand involves comparative assessment of well-known approaches and tools used for imitative modelling of economic and demographic development of territorial systems with different level. The authors have conducted the analysis that made it possible to reveal the opportunities and the limits of their practical implementation within the task of evaluating the mutual influence of the migration activity of the population and economic development of the territories. Taking into account the results of assessment, the authors formulate basic principles and requirements for establishing an appropriate set of modelling tools. They justify the approach to studying the mutual influence of the migration activity of the population and economic development of the region based on the complex application of imitation modelling methods, indistinct logic, parameter analysis as well as geographical information technologies. Complex application of these methods will provide for the development of mechanisms of regulating interregional migration and allow establishing the measures for ensuring sustainable development of the economics of the regions of the Russian Federation in the long-term perspective.