The European energy crisis of 2022 in the context of increasing sanctions pressure on the russian federation: Analysis of economic losses and scenarios

Abstract

In recent years, European countries have become much more dependent on energy supplies from the russian federation, and this trend has become particularly evident since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Therefore, it is relevant to consider the causes and consequences of this crisis for European countries. Thus, the purpose of the study was to demonstrate the likely losses for the EU member states from the onset of the crisis and to formulate possible outcomes. The main scientific method in the investigation was analysis. However, other methods were used, including statistical (graphical, modelling), historical, deduction, etc. The paper analyses foreign trade relations between the russian federation and European countries, which have significantly strengthened over time. The author shows that the EU countries are experiencing a rapid trend of increasing dependence on russian energy resources. The article argues that the consequences of this crisis for the European Union may vary greatly depending on how actively other countries will help to overcome it, especially in terms of oil supplies. With regard to natural gas, it ultimately depends on the policy that EU member states choose to implement to replace this resource in their energy system and how quickly they can respond to the constant new challenges in this area. In any case, the crisis will be followed by rising energy prices, stagflation, and lower economic growth. The article brings new knowledge to the study of the energy market and is of empirical importance for understanding the development trends in Europe and the global economy as a whole