MATHEMATICAL MODELING APPLIED TO ASSESS THE DRIVING FACTORS OF INCREASING ROAD ACCIDENTS IN BANGLADESH

Abstract

In today's world, particularly in developing nations, traffic safety is one of the most pressing challenges. Every single day, traffic accidents alone claim hundreds of lives across all nations and regions. Besides rapid development in the transportation sector, road accidents are also increasing day by day. Therefore, every government has regarded it as one of the crucial issues and as the first big issue that has to be resolved. To lessen the number of accidents on the roads and the harm they cause, necessary actions have been implemented. We discovered that it is impracticable and time-consuming to investigate the contributing elements behind vehicle accidents since vast amounts of statistical data are required. In this paper, we develop a dynamical model to describe the dynamics of the traffic accident. Accidents are mostly caused by negligent or inexperienced drivers and defective machinery. We have described the dynamics in terms of a system of four ordinary differential equations with four state variables and parameters. We have developed a mathematical model that can estimate the number of fatal traffic accidents. In order to validate the model, we looked at the positivity of the solutions, equilibrium points, stability of the equilibrium points, and other relevant analytical studies. In order to demonstrate the validity of our study, we ran a numerical simulation using parameter values that were verified from reliable sources.