Association between precipitation and mortality due to diarrheal diseases by climate zone: A multi-country modeling study

Author:

Chua Paul L. C.1ORCID,Tobias Aurelio23,Madaniyazi Lina3,Ng Chris Fook Sheng1,Phung Vera Ling Hui1,Fu Sze Hang4,Rodriguez Peter S.4,Brown Patrick45,Coelho Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio6,Saldiva Paulo Hilario Nascimento6,Scovronick Noah7,Deshpande Aniruddha8,Salazar Miguel Antonio S.9,Dorotan Miguel Manuel C.9,Tantrakarnapa Kraichat10,Kliengchuay Wissanupong10,Abrutzky Rosana11,Carrasco-Escobar Gabriel1213,Roye Dominic14,Hales Simon15,Hashizume Masahiro13

Affiliation:

1. Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan

2. Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain

3. Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan

4. Centre for Global Health Research, St. Michael’s Hospital and University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

5. Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

6. Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

7. Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia

8. Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia

9. Alliance for Improving Health Outcomes, Inc., Quezon City, Philippines

10. Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Bangkok, Thailand

11. Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina

12. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, California

13. Health Innovation Laboratory, Institute of Tropical Medicine “Alexander von Humboldt,” Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru

14. Climate Research Foundation, Madrid, Spain

15. Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Newtown, Wellington, New Zealand

Abstract

Background: Precipitation could affect the transmission of diarrheal diseases. The diverse precipitation patterns across different climates might influence the degree of diarrheal risk from precipitation. This study determined the associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality in tropical, temperate, and arid climate regions. Methods: Daily counts of diarrheal mortality and 28-day cumulative precipitation from 1997 to 2019 were analyzed across 29 locations in eight middle-income countries (Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, India, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand). A two-stage approach was employed: the first stage is conditional Poisson regression models for each location, and the second stage is meta-analysis for pooling location-specific coefficients by climate zone. Results: In tropical climates, higher precipitation increases the risk of diarrheal mortality. Under extremely wet conditions (95th percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality increased by 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.4%, 25.7%) compared with minimum-risk precipitation. For temperate and arid climates, diarrheal mortality increases in both dry and wet conditions. In extremely dry conditions (fifth percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality risk increases by 3.8% (95% CI = 1.2%, 6.5%) for temperate and 5.5% (95% CI = 1.0%, 10.2%) for arid climates. Similarly, under extremely wet conditions, diarrheal mortality risk increases by 2.5% (95% CI = −0.1%, 5.1%) for temperate and 4.1% (95% CI = 1.1%, 7.3%) for arid climates. Conclusions: Associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality exhibit variations across different climate zones. It is crucial to consider climate-specific variations when generating global projections of future precipitation-related diarrheal mortality.

Publisher

Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3