Development of risk scores for early and late recurrence of colonic diverticular hemorrhage

Abstract

Objectives Colonic diverticular hemorrhage (CDH) often recurs. Although several studies have suggested that early rebleeding (ER) and late rebleeding (LR) should be treated independently, and several ER/LR risk factors have been identified, an integrated system for risk evaluation is still lacking. This study aimed to develop risk scores for early and late rebleeding of CDH. Methods This two-center, retrospective cohort study included 218 patients between 2008 and 2021. ER and LR risk factors were identified using multivariate analysis, and risk scores were developed using the odds ratios of each risk factor. Results: The ER and LR rates were 32.6 and 25.7%, respectively. High heart rate on admission, early endoscopy from the visit, no bowel preparation and no endoscopic treatment were identified as risk factors for ER. On the other hand, LR risk factors included a history of hypertension and diabetes, early endoscopy from the visit, and the use of endoscopic clips. The ER risk score [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71] was highly sensitive (90.3%) at a cutoff point of 6 and highly specific (98.0%) at a cutoff point of 15. The LR risk score (AUC = 0.70) was highly sensitive (91.1%) at a cutoff point of 2.6 and highly specific (88.3%) at a cutoff point of 7.1. Conclusions The ER and LR risk scores were established for the first time, and they can divide CDH patients based on their risk of rebleeding as well as provide clinicians with practical information about the CDH management.