Platelet-albumin-bilirubin score – a risk stratification scoring system to predict outcome of acute variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis

Abstract

Background Acute variceal bleed is a common complication of cirrhosis of liver. Up to 25% of patients with newly diagnosed varices will experience bleeding within 2 years. Of patients who have stopped bleeding, approximately one-third will rebleed within the next 6 weeks. Though scores like Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) predict the survival of upper gastrointestinal bleed, they have certain limitations in this regard. So, there is a need for reliable scoring system to assess the outcome of patients who had acute variceal bleed. Aim To evaluate the platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) score in predicting outcome of acute variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. Methods A total of 130 patients who presented to our institute with acute variceal bleed over a period of 1 year were analyzed. CTP, MELD Na and PALBI scores were calculated for these patients on admission and the outcome was compared in the form of 90-day rebleeding rates. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) were calculated for this purpose. Results Mean age was 56 years; 80 were male (61.5%), 50 were female (38.5%), 62 CTP-A (47.7%), 53 CTP-B (40.8%), 15 CTP-C (11.5%); 63 PALBI 1 (48.5%), 23 PALBI 2 (17.8%), and 44 PALBI 3 (33.8%). 1 patient died in the due course of the study. The AUROC for predicting rebleeding was 0.732, 0.71 and 0.803 for CTP, MELD Na and PALBI scores, respectively. Conclusion PALBI score on admission is a good predictor of outcomes in cirrhotics with acute variceal bleed.