December Is Coming: A Time Trend Analysis of Monthly Variation in Adult Elective Anesthesia Caseload across Florida and Texas Locations of a Large Multistate Practice

Abstract

Background Anesthesia staffing models rely on predictable surgical case volumes. Previous studies have found no relationship between month of the year and surgical volume. However, seasonal events and greater use of high-deductible health insurance plans may cause U.S. patients to schedule elective surgery later in the calendar year. The hypothesis was that elective anesthesia caseloads would be higher in December than in other months. Methods This review analyzed yearly adult case data in Florida and Texas locations of a multistate anesthesia practice from 2017 to 2019. To focus on elective caseload, the study excluded obstetric, weekend, and holiday cases. Time trend decomposition analysis was used with seasonal variation to assess differences between December and other months in daily caseload and their relationship to age and insurance subgroups. Results A total of 3,504,394 adult cases were included in the analyses. Overall, daily caseloads increased by 2.5 ± 0.1 cases per day across the 3-yr data set. After adjusting for time trends, the average daily December caseload in 2017 was 5,039 cases (95% CI, 4,900 to 5,177), a 20% increase over the January-to-November baseline (4,196 cases; 95% CI, 4,158 to 4,235; P < 0.0001). This increase was replicated in 2018: 5,567 cases in December (95% CI, 5,434 to 5,700) versus 4,589 cases at baseline (95% CI, 4,538 to 4,641), a 21.3% increase; and in 2019: 6,103 cases in December (95% CI, 5,871 to 6,334) versus 5,045 cases at baseline (95% CI, 4,984 to 5,107), a 21% increase (both P < 0.001). The proportion of commercially insured patients and those aged 18 to 64 yr was also higher in December than in other months. Conclusions In this 3-yr retrospective analysis, it was observed that, after accounting for time trends, elective anesthesia caseloads were higher in December than in other months of the year. Proportions of commercially insured and younger patients were also higher in December. When compared to previous studies finding no increase, this pattern suggests a recent shift in elective surgical scheduling behavior. Editor’s Perspective What We Already Know about This Topic What This Article Tells Us That Is New