Increasing Incidence and Decreasing Mortality of Melanoma in Elderly Adults: An Epidemiologic Study in Olmsted County, Minnesota

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Primary cutaneous melanoma incidence is increasing in elderly individuals. This population-based cohort examines incidence and mortality rates among adults aged 61 years and older with cutaneous melanoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, patients aged 61 years of age or older with a first lifetime diagnosis of cutaneous melanoma between January 1, 1970 and December 31, 2020 were identified. RESULTS The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate increased from 16.4 (95% CI, 8.2–24.6) per 100,000 person-years in 1970 to 1979 to 201.5 (95% CI, 185.1–217.8) per 100,000 person-years in 2011 to 2020 (12.3-fold increase). There was a 16.0x increase in males and an 8.5× increase in females. Melanoma incidence has stabilized in males (1.2-fold increase, p = .11) and continues to significantly increase in females (2.7-fold increase, p < .001). Older age at diagnosis was significantly associated with an increased risk of death (HR 1.23 per 5-year increase in age at diagnosis, 95% CI, 1.02–1.47). CONCLUSION Melanoma incidence continues to increase since 1970. The incidence has risen in elderly females, but has stabilized in males. Mortality has decreased throughout this period.