Nomograms for predicting the recurrence probability and recurrence-free survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after conversion hepatectomy based on hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy: a multicenter, retrospective study

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to establish and validate nomograms to predict the probability of recurrence and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after conversion hepatectomy based on hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC). Methods: Nomograms were constructed using data from a retrospective study of 214 consecutive patients treated with HAIC-based conversion liver resection between January 2016 and July 2020. Nomograms predicting the probability of tumor recurrence and RFS were established based on predictors selected by multivariate regression analysis. Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were examined. Bootstrap method was used for internal validation. External validation was performed using cohorts (n=128) from three other centers. Results: Recurrence rates in the primary and external validation cohorts were 63.6 and 45.3%, respectively. Nomograms incorporating clinicopathological features of tumor recurrence and RFS were generated. Concordance index (C-index) scores of the nomograms for predicting recurrence probability and RFS were 0.822 (95% CI, 0.703–0.858) and 0.769 (95% CI, 0.731–0.814) in the primary cohort, and 0.802 (95% CI, 0.726–0.878) and 0.777 (95% CI, 0.719–0.835) in the external validation cohort, respectively. Calibration curves indicated good agreement between the nomograms and actual observations. Moreover, the nomograms outperformed the commonly used staging systems. Patients with low risk, stratified by the median nomogram scores had better RFS (low risk vs. high risk, 36.5 vs. 5.2 months, P<0.001). The external validation cohort supported these findings. Conclusions: The presented nomograms showed favorable accuracy for predicting recurrence probability and RFS in HCC patients treated with HAIC-based conversion hepatectomy. Identifying risk factors and estimating tumor recurrence may help clinicians in the decision-making process regarding adjuvant therapies for patients with HCC, which eventually achieves better oncological outcomes.