Development and comprehensive validation of a predictive prognosis model for very early HCC recurrence within one year after curative resection: a multicenter cohort study

Abstract

Background: The high incidence of early recurrence after liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the main obstacle in achieving good long-term survival outcomes. The aim of the present study is to develop a prognostic model in predicting the risk of very early (1-year) recurrence. Material and Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent liver resection for HCC with curative intent at multi-centers in China were enrolled in this study. The VERM-pre (the Preoperative Very Early Recurrence Model of HCC) with good performance was derived and validated by internal and external cohorts retrospectively and by another two-center cohort prospectively. Results: 7401 patients were enrolled and divided randomly into 3 cohorts. Eight variables (tumor diameter, tumor number, macrovascular invasion, satellite nodule, alpha-fetoprotein, level of HBV-DNA, γ-GT and prothrombin time) were identified as independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival on uni- and multi-variate analyses. The VERM-pre model was developed which showed a high capacity of discrimination (C-index: 0.722; AUROC at 1 year: 0.722)) and was validated comprehensively by the internal, external and prospective cohorts, retrospectively. Calibration plots showed satisfactory fitting of probability of early HCC recurrence in the cohorts. Three risk strata were derived to have significantly different recurrence free survival rates (low-risk: 80.4%-85.4%; intermediate-risk: 59.7%-64.8%; high-risk: 32.6%-42.6%). In the prospective validation cohort, the swimming plot illustrated consistent outcomes with the beginning predictive score. Conclusion: The VERM-pre model accurately predicted the 1-year recurrence rates of HCC after liver resection with curative intent. The model was retrospectively and prospectively validated and then developed as the online tool.