Prognostic value of tumor deposits and positive lymph node ratio in stage III colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background: In colorectal cancer (CRC), tumor deposits (TD) have been used to guide the N staging only in node-negative patients. It remains unknown about the prognostic value of TD in combination with positive lymph node ratio (LNR) in stage III CRC. Patients and methods: We analyzed data from 31,139 eligible patients diagnosed with stage III CRC, including 30,230 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database as a training set and 909 from two Chinese hospitals as a validation set. The associations of TD and LNR with cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression models. Results: Both TD-positive and high LNR (value≥0.4) were associated with worse CSS in the training (multivariable hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-1.58 and HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.62-1.86, respectively) and validation sets (HR,1.90; 95%CI, 1.41-2.54 and HR,2.01; 95%CI, 1.29-3.15, respectively). Compared to patients with TD-negative and low LNR (value<0.4), those with TD-positive and high LNR had a 4.09-fold risk of CRC-specific death in the training set (HR, 4.09; 95% CI, 3.54-4.72) and 4.60-fold risk in the validation set (HR, 4.60; 95% CI, 2.88-7.35). Patients with TD-positive/H-LNR CRC on the right side had the worst prognosis (P<0.001). The combined variable of TD and LNR contributed the most to CSS prediction in the training (24.26%) and validation (32.31%) sets. A nomogram including TD and LNR showed satisfactory discriminative ability, and calibration curves indicated favorable consistency in both the training and validation sets. Conclusions: TD and LNR represent independent prognostic predictors for stage III CRC. A combination of TD and LNR could be used to identify those at high risk of CRC deaths.