CAP and LSM as determined by VCTE are independent predictors of all-cause mortality in the US adult population

Abstract

Background and Aim: Data retrospective cohort studies have shown that liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography (TE, FibroScan) can predict mortality in patients with NAFLD, however, its ability to predict mortality at a population level is unknown. We investigated the ability of LSM and controlled-attenuation parameter (CAP) by TE to predict mortality in a prospective US cohort. Approach and Results: A total of 4192 US adults aged ≥18 years enrolled in the National Health, and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2017–2018) with reliable information on CAP and LSM by TE were included in this analysis. All-specific and cause-specific mortality were ascertained by linkage to National Death Index records through December 31, 2019. Cox models were used to estimate HR and 95% CI. During a mean follow-up of 24.4 months, there were 68 deaths (1.6%). CAP (adjusted HR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.0–1.05), and LSM (adjusted HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02–1.11) were independently associated with overall mortality. NAFLD by CAP ≥285 had a 2.2-fold (95% CI: 1.0–4.7) increased odds of mortality compared with non-NAFLD. Cumulative mortality rates were significantly higher in participants with LSM of 9.7–13.5 (advanced fibrosis) and LSM ≥13.6 (cirrhosis) as compared with LSM <9.7; p value for trend across groups <0.01. LSM ≥13.6 displayed the highest mortality risk (adjusted HR: 3.2, 95% CI: 1.3–7.8). Compared with LSM <10 [absence of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD)], LSM 10–19.9 (likely ACLD), and ≥20 kPa (likely ACLD with clinically significant portal hypertension) conferred a 3.4-fold (95% CI: 1.0–13.8) and 5.2-fold (95% CI: 1.2–22.3) increase in hazards of mortality. Conclusions: Our study findings highlight the importance of liver health as a predictor of overall mortality at a population level.