In Search of the Truth: Choice of Ground Truth for Predictive Modeling of Trauma Team Activation in Pediatric Trauma

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Assigning trauma team activation (TTA) levels for trauma patients is a classification task that machine learning models can help optimize. However, performance is dependent on the “ground-truth” labels used for training. Our purpose was to investigate 2 ground truths, the Cribari matrix and the Need for Trauma Intervention (NFTI), for labeling training data. STUDY DESIGN: Data were retrospectively collected from the institutional trauma registry and electronic medical record, including all pediatric patients (age <18 years) who triggered a TTA (January 2014 to December 2021). Three ground truths were used to label training data: (1) Cribari (Injury Severity Score >15 = full activation), (2) NFTI (positive for any of 6 criteria = full activation), and (3) the union of Cribari+NFTI (either positive = full activation). RESULTS: Of 1,366 patients triaged by trained staff, 143 (10.47%) were considered undertriaged using Cribari, 210 (15.37%) using NFTI, and 273 (19.99%) using Cribari+NFTI. NFTI and Cribari+NFTI were more sensitive to undertriage in patients with penetrating mechanisms of injury (p = 0.006), specifically stab wounds (p = 0.014), compared with Cribari, but Cribari indicated overtriage in more patients who required prehospital airway management (p < 0.001), CPR (p = 0.017), and who had mean lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores on presentation (p < 0.001). The mortality rate was higher in the Cribari overtriage group (7.14%, n = 9) compared with NFTI and Cribari+NFTI (0.00%, n = 0, p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: To prioritize patient safety, Cribari+NFTI appears best for training a machine learning algorithm to predict the TTA level.