Updated Markov Model to Determine Optimal Management Strategy for Patients with Paraesophageal Hernia and Symptoms, Cameron Ulcer, or Comorbid Conditions

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The current paradigm of watchful waiting (WW) in people 65 years or older with an asymptomatic paraesophageal hernia (PEH) is based on a now 20-year-old Markov analysis. Recently, we have shown that elective laparoscopic hernia repair (ELHR) provides an increase in life-years (L-Ys) compared with WW in most healthy patients aged 40 to 90 years. However, elderly patients often have comorbid conditions and may have complications from their PEH such as Cameron lesions. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal strategy, ELHR or WW, in these patients. STUDY DESIGN: A Markov model with updated variables was used to compare L-Ys gained with ELHR vs WW in hypothetical people with any type of PEH and symptoms, Cameron lesions, and/or comorbid conditions. RESULTS: In men and women aged 40 to 90 years with PEH-related symptoms and/or Cameron lesions, ELHR led to an increase in L-Ys over WW. The presence of comorbid conditions impacted life expectancy overall, but ELHR remained the preferred approach in all but 90-year-old patients with symptoms but no Cameron lesions. CONCLUSIONS: Using a Markov model with updated values for key variables associated with management options for patients with a PEH, we showed that life expectancy was improved with ELHR in most men and women aged 40 to 90 years, particularly in the presence of symptoms and/or Cameron lesions. Comorbid conditions increase the risk for surgery, but ELHR remained the preferred strategy in the majority of symptomatic patients. This model can be used to provide individualized management guidance for patients with a PEH.