COVID-19-related excess missed HIV diagnoses in the United States in 2021

Abstract

Objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and related disruptions led to a significant decline in HIV diagnoses in the United States in 2020. A previous analysis estimated 18% fewer diagnoses than expected among persons with HIV (PWH) acquiring infection in 2019 or earlier, suggesting that the decline in overall diagnoses cannot be attributed solely to decreased transmission. This analysis evaluates the progress made towards closing the 2020 diagnosis deficit in 2021. Methods: We apply previously developed methods analyzing 2021 diagnosis data from the National HIV Surveillance System to determine whether 2021 diagnosis levels of PWH infected pre-2020 are above or below the expected pre-COVID trends. Results are stratified by assigned sex at birth, transmission group, geographic region, and race/ethnicity. Results: In 2021, HIV diagnoses returned to pre-COVID levels among all PWH acquiring infection 2011–2019. Among Hispanic/Latino PWH and male individuals, diagnoses returned to pre-COVID levels. White PWH, MSM, and PWH living in the south and northeast showed higher-than-expected levels of diagnosis in 2021. For the remaining populations, there were fewer HIV diagnoses in 2021 than expected. Conclusion: Although overall diagnoses among persons acquiring HIV pre-2020 returned to pre-COVID levels, the diagnosis gap observed in 2020 remained unclosed at the end of 2021. Fewer than expected diagnoses among certain populations indicate that COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV diagnosis trends remained in 2021. Although some groups showed higher-than-expected levels of diagnoses, such increases were smaller than corresponding 2020 decreases. Expanded testing programs designed to close these gaps are essential.