Demographic Trends in Liver Transplant Survivors After 3 Decades of Program Implementation: The Impact of Cohort and Period Effects on Life Expectancy

Abstract

Background. Demographic analyses may reveal current patterns of change in the outcomes of rapidly developing medical procedures because they incorporate the period perspective. Methods. We analyzed the changes in size, age structure, and hospitalizations in the population of liver transplantation (LT) survivors in our center during the last 30 y (n = 1114 patients) and generated projections, including life expectancy (LE), considering cohort and period effects. Life tables were used to project the complete LE (overall 1990–2020 experience), the cohort LE (according to the decade of surgery: 1990–2000, 2000–2010, and 2010–2020), and the period LE (current 2015–2020 experience). Results. The population of LT recipients in follow-up continued to experience progressive growth and aging since 1990 (492 patients [41.9% >65 y] in 2020), and the magnitude of these phenomena may double in the next 30 y. However, the number of admissions and days of admission has been decreasing. The complete LE at LT was 12.4 y, whereas the period LE was 15.8 y. The cohort LE (limited to 10 y) was 5.3, 6.3, and 7.3 y for the 1990–2000, 2000–2010, and 2010–2020 cohorts, respectively. Conclusions. The target population of our medical care after LT is growing and aging. The prevalence of both of these phenomena is expected to increase in the coming years and is associated with a current improvement in LE. However, the hospitalization burden associated with LT survivors is declining. The period effect should be considered for generating up-to-date information on these current trends, which are crucial when designing health policies for LT survivors.