Early Metabolic Measures Predict Long-term Insulin Independence in Recipients of Total Pancreatectomy and Islet Autotransplantation

Abstract

Background. Although diabetes after total pancreatectomy and islet autotransplantation (TP-IAT) is one of the biggest concerns for TP-IAT recipients and physicians, reliable prediction of post-TP-IAT glycemic control remains unestablished. This study was conducted to identify early predictors of insulin independence and goal glycemic control by hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≤ 6.5% after TP-IAT. Methods. In this single-center, retrospective study, patients who underwent TP-IAT (n = 227) were reviewed for simple metabolic markers or surrogate indices of β-cell function obtained 3 mo after TP-IAT as part of standard clinical testing. Long-term metabolic success was defined as (1) insulin independence and (2) HbA1c ≤ 6.5% 1, 3, and 5 y after TP-IAT. Single- and multivariate modeling used 3-mo markers to predict successful outcomes. Results. Of the 227 recipients, median age 31 y, 30% male, 1 y after TP-IAT insulin independence, and HbA1c ≤ 6.5% were present in 39.6% and 72.5%, respectively. In single-predictor analyses, most of the metabolic markers successfully discriminated between those attaining and not attaining metabolic goals. Using the best model selected by random forests analysis, we accurately predicted 1-y insulin independence and goal HbA1c control in 77.3% and 86.4% of the patients, respectively. A simpler “clinically feasible” model using only transplanted islet dose and BETA-2 score allowed easier prediction at a small accuracy loss (74.1% and 82.9%, respectively). Conclusions. Metabolic testing measures performed 3 mo after TP-IAT were highly associated with later diabetes outcomes and provided a reliable prediction model, giving valuable prognostic insight early after TP-IAT and help to identify recipients who require early intervention.