The Model for End-stage Liver Disease 3.0 is not superior to the Model for End-stage Liver Disease-Na in predicting survival: A retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background:The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 yields high prognostic performance for patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD). However, its prognostic performance for patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) has limited results. The aim of this study was to perform such an evaluation among Chinese patients.Methods:Patients hospitalized with ARLD in one institution between 2015 and 2018 were retrospectively included and followed up for 12 months. The original MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and modified Maddrey discriminant function (MDF) scores were calculated for each patient at baseline. Their prognostic performances for 1-year survival were assessed. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed, and AUCs were calculated for each scoring system.Results:Among the 576 patients included in our analysis, 209 patients had alcoholic hepatitis (AH). By the 1-year follow-up, 14.8% (84/567) of all the patients and 23.4% (49/209) of those with AH had died. Overall, patients who had died had higher MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and MDF scores (allp< 0.001) than those who had not. The same was true in the AH subgroup (MELD:p< 0.001, MELD-Na:p< 0.001, MELD 3.0:p= 0.007, MDF:p= 0.017). The AUC of the MELD 3.0 for prediction of 1-year survival among patients with ARLD was 0.682, lower than that of the original MELD (0.728,p< 0.001) and MELD-Na (0.735,p< 0.001). Moreover, in the AH subgroup, the AUC for the prediction of 1-year survival was lower than that in the MELD-Na subgroup (0.634 vs. 0.708,p< 0.001).Conclusions:The MELD 3.0 was not superior to the original MELD or the MELD-Na in predicting the mortality of patients with ARLD.