Validation and optimization of AFP-based biomarker panels for early HCC detection in Latin America and Europe

Abstract

Background: HCC is a major cause of cancer death worldwide. Serum biomarkers such as alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), protein induced by vitamin K absence-II, and the Gender, Age, AFP-L3, AFP, Des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (GALAD) score have been recommended for HCC surveillance. However, inconsistent recommendations in international guidelines limit their clinical utility. Methods: In this multicenter study, over 2000 patient samples were collected in 6 Latin American and 2 European countries. The performance of the GALAD score was validated in cirrhotic cases, and optimized versions were tested for early-stage HCC and prediagnostic HCC detection. Results: The GALAD score could distinguish between HCC and cirrhosis in Latin American patients with an AUC of 0.76, sensitivity of 70%, and specificity of 83% at the conventional cutoff value of −0.63. In a European cohort, GALAD had an AUC of 0.69, sensitivity of 66%, and specificity of 72%. Optimizing the score in the 2 large multicenter cohorts revealed that AFP-L3 contributed minimally to early-stage HCC detection. Thus, we developed a modified GALAD score without AFP-L3, the ASAP (age, sex, AFP, and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II), which showed promise for early-stage HCC detection upon validation. The ASAP score also identified patients with cirrhosis at high risk for advanced-stage HCC up to 15 months before diagnosis (p < 0.0001) and differentiated HCC from hemangiomas, with a specificity of 100% at 71% sensitivity. Conclusion: Our comprehensive analysis of large sample cohorts validates the GALAD score’s utility in Latin American, Spanish, and Dutch patients for early-stage HCC detection. The optimized GALAD without AFP-L3, the ASAP score, is a good alternative and shows greater promise for HCC prediction.