Epidemiology and Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Long-Term Disease-Specific Survival in Patients With Pancreatic Carcinoid Tumor

Abstract

Objectives Pancreatic carcinoid tumor (PCT) is described as a malignant form of carcinoid tumors. However, the epidemiology and prognostic factors for PCT are poorly understood. Materials and Methods The data of 2447 PCT patients were included in this study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided into a training cohort (1959) and a validation cohort (488). The epidemiology of PCT was calculated, and independent prognostic factors were identified to construct a prognostic nomogram for predicting long-term disease-specific survival (DSS) among PCT patients. Results The incidence of PCT increased remarkably from 2000 to 2018. The 1-, 5-, and 10-year DSS rates were 96.4%, 90.3%, and 86.5%, respectively. Age at diagnosis, stage, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors to construct a prognostic nomogram. The C-indices; area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year DSS, and calibration plots of the nomogram in both cohorts indicated a high discriminatory accuracy, preferable survival predictive ability, and optimal concordances, respectively. Conclusions The incidence of PCT has increased rapidly since 2000. In addition, we established a practical, effective, and accurate prognostic nomogram for predicting the long-term DSS of PCT patients.